基金项目:
国家自然科学基金 (51177115);
陕西省重点科技创新团队(2014KCT-16);
Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51177115), Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team in Shaanxi Province (2014KCT-16);
In order to reduce the effects of the transmission lines icing accident, we can guide the ice-resistant efforts effectively if the icing thickness on the transmission lines can be predicted. Therefore, we proposed a new transmission line icing short-term forecast model based on time series analysis and Kalman filtering. By using the relevance and scheduling of transmission lines icing time data sequence, the forecast model in this article could reduce the influence of the micro meteorological conditions’ measurement errors on the existing icing forecast model results effectively. Finally, through constructing the micro climate simulation platform for power system and simulating the transmission lines icing to test the forecast model, the result shows that the short-term forecasting average absolute error of the model is 0.78%. At the same time, we used the actual extraction icing data from the on-line monitoring system of Guizhou Power Grid to test the model, the short-term forecasting average absolute error of the model was 2.58%. The validity of the forecast model in this article is confirmed and the model can be able to provide the reference for transmission lines deicing.
KEY WORDS :transmission line;icing forecasting;time series;Kalman filtering;genetic algorithm;
图12
现场数据实例预测结果
Fig.12
Forecasting effect of the icing monitoring data
建模的自动化程度更高。
5)通过试验与现场实例分析,可以得出该模型短期覆冰预测中具有较高的精度,具有一定的工程参考价值。
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